Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ value plays across the tracks on Sunday include this 15/2 Fancy at Naas
Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Horse Racing tips
12:55 Naas – Hurricane Cliff
13:25 Naas – Firefox
14:20 Chepstow – Jeffrey’s Cross
14:05 Plumpton – Cloud Dancer
14:40 Plumpton – Minella Blueway
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
12:55 Naas – Hurricane Cliff
Based on his recent form, top weight Embittered is worth plenty of respect in this weak looking 2m handicap chase having fallen from a high mark of 147 some 12 months ago to his current rating of 132. The 11-year-old ran really well in the Topham Trophy over the Grand National fences in April, until his stamina gave out up the run in, and you certainly couldn’t crab his effort in the Munster National when he was still in the firing line three from home before backing out to finish eighth.
Back down to 2m, I shall be having a saver on him to return my stake on HURRICANE CLIFF. Silver King ran a fair race on return, but doesn’t impress with his jumping technique, while The Other Mozzie probably wants better ground than this. The selection has some unfinished business to attend to. He was well regarded by HDB, winning a maiden hurdle and then running well in some valuable events at Leopardstown and Punchestown. Five runs over fences have yielded one victory off a mark of 112, after which his astute trainer took a punt, and ran him in a Listed novice chase at Fairyhouse where he travelled nicely until having a set to with the eighth obstacle. That made him lose all momentum and he quickly pulled up. A mark of 120 surely underestimates his level of talent, and with signs the stable are finally picking up, I think he is the main punt in this winnable contest.
13:25 Naas – Firefox
Hindsight is a fabulous thing in racing, but it will never refund your losing stakes, so take comfort from the fact even the shrewdest trainers occasionally get it wrong. Emmet Mullins with Corbetts Cross in the King George is one choice example. And the evidence looking back also tells us last season’s novice hurdlers were well below par as well, which will put many off you supporting FIREFOX for this prestigious Grade Two.
However, I loved the way he travelled powerfully through the race on his chasing debut at Down Royal, and readily put the contest to bed when asked, and his subsequent close third to Croke Park in the Drinmore was a significant step forward in a race run at a stop-start pace which wouldn’t have helped his rhythm. I fancy he is worth another chance, even though another significant slice of improvement is needed to beat likely favourite, Inthepocket, and Ile Atlantique. The first named came back from his absence to readily win at Wexford, but his jumping was not put under any pressure, as those behind him failed to get a shot at their target and that will not be the case here and the Willie Mullins’ charge should give a lead to our selection. I fear the latter more following his win over two and a half miles. If those two trade blows up front it could leave them vulnerable if Sam Ewing stays out of the early battle up top.
14:20 Chepstow – Jeffrey’s Cross
Despite only six set to go to post here, there looks to be enough pace in this race to cut out the possibility of a sprint from the home turn with the light weight Captain Boudet and Heros de Romay set to make it a fair gallop. The Venetia Williams’ trained Enjoy Your Life is surely way better than his pulled up effort at Exeter last time out, when he was struggling a long way from home, following a promising opening here over two and a half miles. However, I think they will all have their work cut out to see off top weight JEFFREY’S CROSS who has obviously had his problems, but seems as though he retains plenty of his old ability judged on a cracking second at Windsor on his first run for 581 days.
That day you could see Harry Skelton was trying to nurse him through the race and get him jumping from fence to fence, which he did, and it was only in the final 200 yards he found that lack of a run playing against him. If you believe in the bounce factor, then for many of you that could be his main problem here, but I don’t, and if coming forward enough from that practice outing I fancy he could outclass his rivals here – before being asked sterner questions later in the season.
14:05 Plumpton – Lemoncello
A disappointing turnout of just nine runners for this £75,000-added contest with last year’s winner Transmission set to defend his crown following his amazing win 12 months ago when his young rider performed a brilliant feat of horsemanship in the early stages of that contest. An 8lbs higher mark though requires plenty more against some classy opponents. Top weight Monmiral has run two solid races this season making the classy Strong Leader work hard in the Grade Two Coral Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury last time out. However, he is still 7lbs higher than his winning mark in the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final at the Cheltenham Festival.
With both Cloud Dancer and Craven Bay taken out you could make an argument of sorts for the remaining five runners, but recent French raider, LEMONCELLO could well be the call. Venetia Williams strike rated has fallen to 12% in the past fortnight from the heady Saturday winning days through November and early December when she was hitting 53% win and place, but this recent import is unexposed at the trip and is tried and tested on hock deep ground.
His staying on second to Nemeon Lion at Hereford was a fair level of form and the extra yardage, first run at this extended trip, should logically bring about a significant level of improvement and it will be interesting to know if there is any further money for the six-year-old pre-race.
14:40 Plumpton – Minella Blueway
There is some serious prize money up for grabs at the East Sussex track and it’s a shame the two main races have only attracted fields of nine and eight respectively. Three and a half miles around here will not seem a daunting prospect for many, but the key to winning this Sussex National Handicap Chase is to get into a proper rhythm, and pop away at the obstacles. To that effect, Gold Clermont could have his own way up front. Versatile, as regards tactics, he has run some of his best races when allowed off the leash and off this light weight could well take some catching. Unanswered Prayers finished a creditable third to Mr Vango in the London National at Sandown, as Broken Halo pulled up. The latter is some 6lbs better off here and still travelled okay under Lorcan Williams before bottoming out quickly turning for home before the Pond Fence.
He looks sure to come good for that run, and a mark of 132 is playable, and I think he could nearly reverse that Esher form. But the vote goes to Welsh raider MINELLA BLUEWAY who to my eyes has simply been crying out for a test of this nature. Still a maiden after three starts over fences, he ran a cracker behind the strong staying Ballycamus at Windsor last time out, and looks ready for this deeper test of stamina. His jumping that day was solid and he is 5lbs lower than his highest winning mark over hurdles.
Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Horse Racing tips
12:55 Naas – Hurricane Cliff
13:25 Naas – Firefox
14:20 Chepstow – Jeffrey’s Cross
14:05 Plumpton – Cloud Dancer
14:40 Plumpton – Minella Blueway
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at the time of publishing but subject to change.
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