Darts Tips: Andy Robson’s best bets for the World Darts Championship final

Friday’s darts tips

7.30pm: Luke Littler v Michael Van Gerwen
Over 10.5 Sets
Luke Littler Over 21.5 180s
Luke Littler to Average Over 102.5

Paddy Power World Darts Championship
WHEN: Friday January 3rd, 7.30pm
WHERE: Alexandra Palace, London
TV: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Darts

Over 10.5 Sets

Over 10.5 sets has landed in each of the last 3 World Darts Championship finals and looks a smart bet to take on for this evening’s clash.

Luke Littler has set the bar for much of the event, but Michael van Gerwen has the experience, heading into his 7th final, winning 3, and the Dutchman’s power-scoring has returned at Ally Pally after a frustrating 2024.

Littler has had irresistible spells in matches but has not whitewashed anyone in the tournament. Stephen Bunting missed a huge opportunity to reduce the deficit to 4-2 in the Nuke’s 6-1 semi-final win, while all of Ryan Meikle (world no. 62), Ian White (world no. 57) and Ryan Joyce (world no. 33), especially, have caused Littler problems.

The bet requires each player to win 4 or more sets, MVG has done that in 5 of his 6 previous World Darts Championship finals, and Littler did in his appearance last year.

Luke Littler Over 21.5 180s

Littler needs 20 maximums to break Michael Smith’s record of 83 180s in a single World Darts Championship. If he’s made to play 11 or more sets, he is very likely to hit 20 and his 180-hitting is stronger than van Gerwen’s.

Littler filled up the treble 20 rather than switching to the 19 segment to set up potential 9-dart finishes against Bunting – when previously he has been happy opting for a 177 in his first visit to the board. That shift aids our bid to see him reach 27 maximums.

The market expects van Gerwen to win 5 sets, and that outcome would see Littler having to play 12 sets, minimum, to win the match – a length of play that’d make over 21.5 180s very achievable.

Luke Littler to Average Over 102.5

Littler’s 105.48 average in his 6-1 semi-final win was the highest of the tournament. We expect van Gerwen to win more legs and sets than Bunting did – which is conducive to Littler producing an even higher average because it’d mean he takes on low-figure outshots with less regularity.

This would’ve landed against Bunting and Joyce, in the last 16, and will likely be required if Littler is to defeat van Gerwen with any comfort.

Friday’s darts tips

7.30pm: Luke Littler v Michael Van Gerwen

Over 10.5 Sets
Luke Littler Over 21.5 180s
Luke Littler to Average Over 102.5

Andy’s Bet Club is a great site to add to your research roster and the Darts Predictions section is worth bookmarking for the remainder of the World Darts Championship.

READ MORE

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• Paddy Power World Darts Championship Order of Play: Tonight’s Schedule and Fixtures
• Paddy Power World Darts Championship final date and start time
• Paddy Power World Darts Championship prize money breakdown per round

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