Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ value plays across the tracks on Sunday
Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Horse Racing tips
13:40 Leopardstown – Karniquet (each-way)
14:10 Leopardstown – El Fabiolo
14:25 Musselburgh – Bretney
14:45 Leopardstown – Riaan (each-way)
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
13:40 Leopardstown – Karniquet (each-way)
All eyes will be on Kopek Des Bourdes following his win over the course and distance at the Christmas meeting. That afternoon, he was considerably slower than the other impressive novice winner, Workahead.
However, if you want to be kind there were mitigating circumstances as he looked very green out in front and was never naturally fluent at his obstacles. Add to that the form has been nicely franked by the second home Kawaboomga, and he he looks sure to improve massively for the experience, and he is probably the right favourite.
However, I am very happy to let him go and win at around even-money, and the selection, and stable mate, KARNIQUET could very well hit the frame at huge odds, giving us a much bigger profit.
One of no less than six Willie Mullins’ runners, the each-way selection was lucky to survive an absolutely awful mistake at the second flight in the Grade One Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle before fading from the second last when given a massively easy time by Paddy in the closing stages.
It is worth noting that he was sent off at just 11/2 that day and if you forgive him that run and poor round of jumping he still remains with plenty of potential based on his maiden win at Tramore. That success has worked out wonderfully well with the second and third having landing their maidens since.
Outside of team Mullins, Bleu De Vassy could hit the frame and possibly more if the market leader fails to take another step forward.
14:10 Leopardstown – El Fabiolo
Over fences at the Dublin track, Gaelic Warrior’s form figures read U2, second to Solness on his return, and I would not be in any rush to back him here at a shade of odds-on. Barry Connell keeps on harking on about Marine Nationale, but he is rapidly running out of excuses, and there can be little doubt that the 2023 Supreme Novice Hurdle hero is way better on a sound surface, and I would rather back him in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham on good ground than a testing surface here.
Quilixios certainly won’t mind the ground, but even with doubts about the front few in the market, is he good enough?
Which leaves me to side with EL FABIOLO, a winner at this meeting in the last two years, this race 12 months ago, and the Arkle before that. He has a mighty record when fresh and is six from eight over fences.
The bay gelding may not be the most natural jumper in the field, but these are his conditions and although I am jumping the gun as far as his readiness is concerned on his first run since April, it will be very interesting to read the pre-race quotes from his esteemed trainer which may well make or break a big each-way play from me, he could still be good enough.
14:25 Musselburgh – Bretney
The ground may only be good to soft at the Edinburgh track, but with several natural front runners and pressers in this field of 15, this will still be a very deep test of stamina over the four-mile trip.
Top weight King Turgeon has made great strides this season, and he was only beaten by the bottomless stamina of Collectors Item in the Somerset National at Wincanton. Still, he has endured some pretty tough races this season and will do well to give weight away all around in yet another slugfest and on his fifth start of the season since late October.
Manofthepeople is surely better than his pulled-up effort at Cheltenham in November and could go well at a double-figure price and may well be worth a saver, but the nod goes to the Henry Daly-trained runner, BRETNEY, who has quite obviously been aimed at this race following a clear cut win in the Borders National Handicap Chase at Kelso.
Up a further seven pounds for that win in a better race, if the 10-year-old can stay in touch with the field on this slightly quicker ground on the first circuit then his stamina looks sure to come into play down the home stretch.
14:45 Leopardstown – Riaan (each-way)
This is my kind of handicap chase with extra places up for grabs from Paddy Power and a hugely opposable favourite in top weight James Du Berlais. There is certainly nothing wrong with his mark of 152, but I think that he is soft in a finish. Likely to be running all over his rivals after the second last, I fancy up the tough final climb that he will succumb to at least two featherweights down the home stretch.
Against Willie Mullins’ charge, I took a very long while to get my shortlist down to three. Shantreusse is undoubtedly nicely weighted on his best form, and if he can put in a clean round of jumping, which is not always the case, then Rachael’s mount has an outstanding chance of hitting the frame at the very least at double-figure odds.
Stablemate Life In The Park hasn’t shown much this season, but two runs over three miles is a trip beyond his best, and he could run well and I may well combine the two De Bromhead runners in a hopeful combination forecast/tricast with the RIAAN whose jumping is just that little bit more dependable.
Second in this race last year off a mark of 132, his three runs since, down the field in the Plate at Cheltenham and then out with the washing in the Troytown and a valuable handicap again at Navan last time out doesn’t inspire much. However, he travelled quite well through that race last time out, and I feel that regular pilot Danny Gilligan eased him down plenty early enough with maybe a view to this race. Now, he is only a pound above last year’s rating, and he looks too big to ignore here.
Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Horse Racing tips
13:40 Leopardstown – Karniquet (each-way)
14:10 Leopardstown – El Fabiolo
14:25 Musselburgh – Bretney
14:45 Leopardstown – Riaan (each-way)
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at the time of publishing but subject to change.
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