Tennis Tips: Your 3 best bets for Sabalenka v Keys women’s Australian Open final with 6/1 shot

Tennis betting tips

Set betting – Sabalenka 2-0
1st Set Score after 6 games – Sabalenka 4-2
#WhatOddsPaddy – Aryna Sabalenka to Win 2-0 & win each set 6-3 OR 6-4

Women’s Australian Open Final 2025
Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
Saturday 25th January 2025, 8.30am

Set betting – Sabelenka 2-0

Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t been quite as dominant at this year’s Australian Open compared with 12 months ago. But her display against good friend Paula Badosa was a showcase of the world number one at her powerful, borderline unplayable best.

The Belarusian won both hardcourt Grand Slam finals in straight sets in 2024, and another uncomplicated success could be on the cards this weekend. All signs point to her peaking at the perfect time in Melbourne.

Sabalenka won 78.2 per cent of points behind her first serve at last year’s tournament. That figure for this event was as low as 65.5 per cent heading into Thursday’s semi-final – perhaps a consequence of a significantly higher ball toss throughout the event – but her serve was superb against Badosa as she only faced one break point.

Not only was her first serve back up towards last year’s standard, but she was also tricky to breach on her second serve. Madison Keys, who has gone the distance in four of her six outings during this fortnight, will have a tough time generating and converting opportunities.

1st Set Score after 6 games – Sabalenka 4-2

It hasn’t taken Sabalenka long to assert her authority in matches over the last two weeks. She has led 4-2 after six games in four of her six assignments en route to the final, and her price to repeat that against Keys is very appealing.

Even a slow start against Badosa didn’t faze her. She overturned a 2-0 deficit to lead 4-2 and take the set 6-4.

Keys trailed 4-2 after six games in her victory over Iga Swiatek and struggled severely with her serve at the start of that match, resulting in three breaks in the Pole’s favour. Sabelanka will look to be aggressive from the beginning and create chances to inflict similar punishment.

#WhatOddsPaddy – Aryna Sabalenka to Win 2-0 & win each set 6-3 OR 6-4

These two have met three times on a hardcourt, with Sabalenka winning all of them. The first was a 6-3 6-4 success, and the latest encounter, in Beijing last year, saw her prevail 6-4 6-3.

Sabalenka was all over Keys’ first serve in China, winning 19 of those 43 return points. She forced seven break points and took the two she needed for the comfortable triumph.

In complete contrast, Sabalenka only dropped five points behind her first serve that day – even more impressive than the seven she dropped against Badosa last time out.

Keys will offer resistance on Saturday and will unlikely be swept aside quickly. However, this is a suitable match-up for the defending champion, so this sort of scoreline feels very plausible.

Tennis betting tips

Set betting – Sabalenka 2-0
1st Set Score after 6 games – Sabalenka 4-2
#WhatOddsPaddy – Aryna Sabalenka to Win 2-0 & win each set 6-3 OR 6-4

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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