What is politics betting and how does it work? Your complete guide
Political betting is a growing trend in the UK as punters realise that the drama and scandals that befall Westminster, Washington and everywhere in between is actually good to bet on.
The media cycle is so frenzied that governments that look stable can quickly become shaky. Prime ministers can lose their jobs in just a few weeks (hello, Liz!). Presidential candidates can exit the race at a moment’s notice.
Paddy Power offers extensive politics odds that cover the entire world. From the UK and Ireland to central Europe, betting on the EU, the American presidential election, Brazil’s next elections, and even Australian state elections. There’s hardly an election in the world that we don’t cover.
If you’re new to political betting then you might not know where to start. That’s understandable, which is why Paddy’s created this quick guide to betting on politics. Read on to understand how the odds in politics work and what types of outcomes you can bet on.
What is politics betting?
Politics betting covers a wide range of outcomes that focus solely on the political industry. There was a time when bookmakers hid their politics odds in the ‘novelty’ section of their websites – but these days there’s nothing novelty about politics!
Betting on political issues ranges in seriousness. Most punters will focus on election results but, in reality, you can back practically anything. So long as it’s political, there’s a chance we’ll run a market for it. Even if it means betting on the colour of Donald Trump’s tie.
Here are the most popular politics betting odds to follow right now:
UK election betting
The UK elects a new government every five years, or sooner if there is a snap election. The UK election odds usually reflect the polls. You can bet on which party will win a majority and therefore form a government, or if there will be a coalition. In 2024 Labour won a big majority and cast the Conservatives into opposition. The odds had predicted Labour would win three years before the election was called!
US presidential betting
The US presidential race always boils down to two candidates: one Republic, one Democrat. That means it’s an easy bet to place between two outcomes. In recent years the US presidential odds have become incredibly tight – so much so that both candidates are neck-and-neck heading into the vote.
Irish unification
Betting on Irish unification is a regular option at bookmakers, and punters usually have a choice of which year a referendum will take place. Some sites also offer odds on the outcome of a referendum vote.
Party leaders
You can bet on the next party leaders of the core UK political parties, the Conservatives and Labour. There were four Tory leaders between 2019 and 2024, so this is usually a volatile market.
How politics betting odds work
Politics betting odds represent the likelihood of something happening, much like sports odds. However, there is a big difference here. Unlike sports, where odds setters use data to map out the probability of each possible outcome, politics works on different rules.
Here, the odds work on polling data, historical results, and the latest betting activity. A betting site will set the next UK general election odds, for example, based on how the parties are faring right now and the result of the last election.
However, if 10,000 bettors suddenly back the Conservatives to win the next election, for example, then their odds will shrink and Labour’s will widen. Equally, if those bettors also back the Liberal Democrats to win 75+ seats, that market will see an odds change too.
Politics betting markets can flip in an instant if someone resigns or if there is a big scandal. This happened in 2022 when Liz Truss quit as prime minister after just 50 days in office. Her announcement caused a huge push towards Labour in the UK election odds.
Can I bet on politics?
Yes, you can bet on politics at Paddy Power so long as you sign up and have an active account. Political betting encompasses elections and events across the world, from the UK to Australia.
You can bet on the UK election, on who will be the next prime minister, on which presidential candidate will win a TV debate, and even which way Scotland would vote in a second independence referendum.
The options are limitless. Paddy also offers deals such as Brexit special bets and Power Prices on the US election, so it’s worth keeping an eye out for political betting offers next time you’re on the app!
