Shots on target rule: What counts and what doesn’t in football betting

Betting on shots on target is a smart way to back your team without relying on them actually finding the net and making your day.

Premier League sides recorded a total of 3,760 shots on target across the 2023/24 season. That averages out at 188 shots per team each season, or 9.8 per game.

Of course, some teams do better than others in recording shots on target. 2024 champions Manchester City totalled 278 shots on goal across 38 games, while relegated Sheffield United managed just 129. No wonder they went down.

This guide will take you through how Paddy Power records shots goal, what counts as hitting the target and what doesn’t.

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How we record shots on target

We use Opta to track all shots on target in the Premier League and beyond. Opta are stats providers to Sky Sports and tons of other teams and leagues. They ensure the data we use to settle bets is as accurate as possible.

Sometimes they review the statistics and make amendments, so it may appear there’s been a shot on target according to the stats on PaddyPower.com, this can change.

What counts as a shot on target?

It’s important to iron out the shots on target definition so bettors can confidently place their bets. We use Opta’s definition, which is any goal attempt that:

• Goes into the net regardless of intent
• Is a clear attempt to score that would have gone into the net but for being saved by the goalkeeper or is stopped by a player who is the last line of defence with the goalkeeper having no chance of preventing the goal (last line block)
• Shots that are blocked by another player, who is not the last line of defence, are not deemed to be shots on target. Shots that hit any part of the frame around the goal are not counted as shots on target, unless the ball subsequently goes into the back of the net and is officially awarded as a goal

Now, it can sometimes be difficult to determine whether a shot on target has occurred. Here are some instances that do count as a shot on goal:

• Deflected Shot that would be going in, but for a save from the goalkeeper
• Goals that hit the woodwork on the way in
• A goal scored directly from a corner
• A shot cleared off the line by a defender, who is classified as the last line of defence
• A shot that was going on target is a certain goal but that is blocked by someone on the shooter’s same team

What is not a shot on target?

Perhaps more crucially for your football bets, it’s important to know what isn’t a shot on target. Thankfully Opta can help out here too.

• Crosses that would be going into the goal, but the goalkeeper catches/tips around for a corner
• Blocked shots that a goalkeeper doesn’t save but collects due to a lack of power
• Blocked/deflected shots that hit the woodwork
• Shots the goalkeeper saves that were going off-target
• A corner that would be going into the goal, but the goalkeeper stops the ball from going in
• A defender’s clearance that hits an attacking player which goes towards goal and the keeper must save
• A shot that hits the post, then the keeper and bounces out
• A shot that hits the post and trickles on the line before a defender clears the ball
• A headed/non-headed flick on which runs through to the goalkeeper from a corner/free-kick

So, if a goalkeeper takes a goal kick and the striker flicks the ball on, only for it to dribble to the opposition goalkeeper, this doesn’t count as a shot on target.

What is a shot off target?

A shot off-target is defined as any clear attempt to score that:

• Goes over or wide of the goal without making contact with another player
• Would have gone over or wide of the goal but for being stopped by a goalkeeper’s save or by an outfield player
• Directly hits the frame of the goal and a goal is not scored

This is an important distinction to make if you are betting on total shots, compared to total shots on target.

Is hitting the post a shot on target?

No, hitting the post isn’t classed as a shot on target for betting purposes. The reason for this is a ‘shot on target’ is either a goal or a goal-bound effort that is stopped by a player who is the last line of defence (usually the goalkeeper).

Does a penalty count as a shot on target?

So long as the penalty is scored or the goalkeeper saves it then yes, a penalty is a shot on target. If the player misses or hits the post, it’s not on target. Penalties in shoot-outs don’t count towards shots on target.

Does a header count as a shot on target

Yes. All goal-bound efforts are counted as shots on target, including headers.

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