Football Performance Analysis: What is it and how does it help your bets?
Punters looking for an edge when betting on football will often turn to analytics to help them out. Data can do a lot of talking and, if you find the right stuff, can help your predict the outcomes of upcoming football games.
It’s never an exact science but bettors and coaches often use the same data sets to figure out how football games will pan out.
While a manager may look at how a team presses its opponents into winning a ball, a bettor may use the same data to gauge how likely it is an underdog will score against a big favourite.
This is football performance analysis – the skill of assessing previous matches and in-play games, analysing the data, and spotting likely outcomes next time.
For punters, it means they can make more confident selections when backing teams to win, players to score, and everything in between.
This quick guide to performance analysis in football explains the basics of what to do, and how you can use your findings to make smarter bets.
What is performance analysis in football?
Performance analysis in football is about using video and statistical data to predict what might happen next time a team or player takes to the field. Companies like Opta generate thousands of data points per match on a whole range of things.
Be it the distance a player runs, their success rate in closing down opponents, how quickly a team wins the ball back after losing possession, the expected goals (xG) of a team against a particular opponent, even the likelihood of a goalkeeper saving penalty against a specific player. There’s a near-limitless range of data points you can draw from a football game and analyse how you like.
For coaches, all this boils down to performance. Did a team perform well, regardless of the result? Was their expected threat (xT) good, even if their xG wasn’t? If so, then the team just needs to be calmer in front of goal and the performance can stay the same.
For bettors, performance analysis is about looking at areas where teams have hidden strengths and weaknesses, which might not be evident in the odds.
How to analyse football
This is the tricky bit. Not even the most dedicated of bettors sits down and watches past football games like Marcelo Bielsa or Pep Guardiola in preparation for an upcoming match.
Opta and StatsBomb do a lot of the hard work for you by collecting all the data. This is then fed to media outlets, the Premier League, even bookmakers. For punters, it’s about pouring over this data and picking out the good bits.
This isn’t always easy but some things can be evident as soon as you look at the data. The Premier League, for example, has a wide data bank that punters can use to discover the more productive goalscorers in each team, the meanest defences, and the goalkeepers with the best penalty save rate.
If you want to go beyond this and start generating your own data then you’ll need to start watching a lot of games – and we mean watching a lot! You can begin by taking your own notes and then collecting your own data points.
This might be average touches in possession before a team has a goalscoring opportunity. You might notice that a team averages only five touches before a chance, and if it goes beyond that, then the likelihood of them having a shot dramatically diminishes. This could really help you in an in-play betting situation when you’re watching football live.
How football performance analysis helps betting
Now we know a little more about what football analysis is, it’s time to look at how you can improve your bets by practising it. Below are three ways analysis can shape the way you bet.
You start noticing stats everywhere
Once you begin analysing football it’s hard to stop. You can go from not caring about pass completion rates and average yellow cards, to sweating over xG and pressing success rates.
The thing is, the more you know the smarter your bets become. There’s no issue with doing extra research to spot gaps in the odds.
For example, you might notice that England rarely score a second goal at a major tournament in the 10 minutes after scoring an opener. You look at the data and watch past performances, and notice they always sit back for a little after scoring. So, it’s therefore a perfect time to bet on the scores being the same 10 minutes after the opener – perhaps leading to a confident half-time score bet.
You can predict goalscorers
Football analysis isn’t all about goals, but that’s the most fun part! Assessing who is most likely to score against certain defences or opposition formations is doable if you have the right data.
For example, a team playing a lone striker and five-man defence against one with two holding midfielders is probably only going to score on the counter or at a set piece.
It might therefore be worth backing a centre-back to score from a corner, rather than the lone striker.
Card tracking when live betting
It’s often said that derbies produce more yellow cards than average league games. While this is sometimes the case, you can’t rely on Liverpool vs Everton or Rangers vs Celtic to boil over every time.
Instead, card counting when live betting is a great way to make in-play predictions. If a game is getting testy, with a low completed pass rate, a high foul rate, and a high error rate, then cards are likely to come.
Eventually a late challenge or a mistimed interception will lead to referees getting the book out. Once the yellows start rolling, more will likely follow.
What next?
Now you know a little more about performance analytics in football, it’s time to put your knowledge to the test. Find a stats bank that works for you and dig into the numbers. See if you can spot trends that the odds don’t account for – such as a dead-cert first goalscorer being priced as an underdog to open the scoring.
If you fancy a punt, join Paddy Power today and trigger a welcome offer before heading to the latest football odds!
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