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5 Premier League betting trends in Gameweek 25 – Early bird Diaz the key for Liverpool

Andrew Beasley

Football News, Premier League

4 months ago

While it would be going too far to say there were some massive upsets in Matchweek 25, three of the top six teams lost their games.

There was little to shout about at the wrong end of the table, with Ipswich’s draw at Aston Villa representing the sole point earned by the bottom five clubs. A defeat to Tottenham pushed Manchester United into the bottom six. They couldn’t go down, could they?

No. But far more importantly, United feature in one of the five things we spotted in the Premier League this weekend. Let’s get started.

Main man Mateta

The two in-form strikers in 2025 both scored in 2-1 defeats this weekend. The men in question are Jean-Philippe Mateta and Chris Wood, both of whom have scored seven Premier League goals in 2025 which is more than any other player.

Their games on Saturday summed up their years, their seasons, maybe even their careers. Mateta had more shots on target, a higher xG total, but he couldn’t outdo Wood for efficiency. The Nottingham Forest front man is the third top scorer in the 2024/25 Premier League despite 23 players taking more shots.

He’s playing for a better side than Crystal Palace, which helps. It’s Mateta who looks likelier to continue scoring if you look at the underlying numbers though.

Nwaneri ready to fire for the Gunners

Leicester have conceded an average of 16.7 shots per game so far this season, the third worst rate in the Premier League.

An injury-ravaged Arsenal mustered just 11 goal attempts in their 2-0 victory at the King Power Stadium, with two coming from their brace-scoring hero substitute Mikel Merino.

Four of the nine shots posted by starters came from 17-year-old Ethan Nwaneri, the only Gunner to fire off more than one. There have only been 14 other examples of a player so young taking 3+ shots in Europe’s big five leagues this season.

They’re all by Lamine Yamal. Bloody hell.

Nwaneri has had a least one shot in every match in which he’s played for over 45 minutes this season. If he starts a game, the youngster is a very solid pick in any shot-related markets.

Quickfire Pep

For all their recent problems closing games out, Manchester City have generally started them well. They came into the weekend as the top scoring side for first half goals in the Premier League.

With Newcastle having had only two goalless first halves in 2024/25, City were likely to have chances to net in the opening 45 minutes. A hat-trick from new boy Omar Marmoush more than proved that point.

Liverpool scored twice inside 37 minutes against Wolves this weekend and are second in the top flight for first half goals this term. They travel to the Etihad next Sunday, so if you like betting on first half markets, don’t tune in late for that one.

Early bird Lucho

Mohamed Salah was one of the Reds’ scorers in their 2-1 win over Wolves, predictably enough. He has made it to mid-February while only having four league matches in which he hasn’t scored or assisted at least once this season.

But as much as the Egyptian is an anytime goal scorer supreme, Salah isn’t so hot for breaking the deadlock. Liverpool’s top man for that is Luis Diaz, who opened the scoring at Anfield.

In seven of the eight matches in all competitions in which he scored this season, he got the opener. In the Premier League alone, only Wood (nine) and Bryan Mbeumo (seven) have scored first more times than Diaz (six) this season.

Lucho is a better value bet for the first goal than Salah is, believe it or not.

Ruben’s Reds tamed at Spurs

Make no mistake, Man United are a bad team.

But they could easily have got something at Tottenham on Sunday instead of losing 1-0. Alejandro Garnacho blazed a big chance over in the first half and Joshua Zirkzee headed one wide after the interval.

While they lost on the underlying numbers, United mustered 1.5 expected goals. It is the sixth time they have tallied at least one xG without scoring this season, the joint-most of any team in the top leagues in England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain.

With them sixth bottom of the Premier League table (and fifth worst in the Ruben Amorim era), these statistics are no consolation to United supporters. They should have scored more goals though, as they demonstrated in a big way against Spurs.