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Brighton v Chelsea Tips: Our 3 best bets on Friday include a 22/1 shout

Shane O’Brien

Football Tips, Premier League

5 months ago

The Premier League action gets started early this weekend with a quickfire Friday night reunion at the Amex Stadium as Brighton host Chelsea.

The two sides have opened up a rivalry in recent seasons, following a string of players and even a manager heading up to Stamford Bridge, and the Seagulls are still chasing a European spot this season. This is also their second meeting in eight days after Brighton breezed past the Blues in the FA Cup fourth round.

Paddy Power tipster Shane O’Brien has dug out three value picks here, one of which is covered by Paddy’s Super Sub offer, meaning that if a player is replaced, the pick carries over to his replacement.

Let’s get his Brighton v Chelsea betting tips.

Brighton v Chelsea tips

Over 3.5 goals
Cole Palmer to have 2+ shots on target
Brighton to score in each half, Brighton to have more corners in each half & Chelsea to have most cards

WHEN: Friday, 14th of February, 8:00pm
WHERE: AMEX Stadium, Brighton
TV: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League

Over 3.5 goals

Brighton and Chelsea meet at the Amex for the second time in under a week, with Chelsea looking to avenge a 2-1 FA Cup defeat at the hands of Brighton six days ago.

Enzo Maresca’s side were disappointing in last week’s FA Cup defeat after being gifted an early opener by Bart Verbruggen, with the performance underlining a worrying trend in Chelsea away games over the past two months.

Chelsea have not won away from Stamford Bridge in any competition since mid-December, while their only clean sheet December 1st came in a home FA Cup tie against Morecambe.

Brighton, on the other hand, have only managed three clean sheets in their last 18 games in all competitions in a run stretching back to October, and boast the worst defensive record in the top ten, conceding 38 times in 24 games. Chelsea, for the record, have conceded 31 times in the same number of games.

Chelsea won out 4-2 in a high-scoring thriller at Stamford Bridge back in September and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that Friday’s fixture will be similarly high-scoring.

Cole Palmer to have two or more shots on target

Cole Palmer has been by far and away Chelsea’s most important player this season, scoring 14 times in the Premier League and registering six assists.

However, he has struggled for form somewhat of late, failing to score in each of his last four games in all competitions and scoring just three times in his last ten.

It is not for want of trying.

Palmer averages by far the most shots of any Chelsea player this season, averaging 3.5 shots per game in the Premier League. Only Noni Madueke (2.9 per game) and Nicolas Jackson (2.7) come anywhere close to matching Palmer’s output in that regard.

Palmer registered seven shots and two efforts on target in Chelsea’s last league game against West Ham and should get plenty of shots away against what is a fairly porous Brighton defence. He should test Verbruggen at least twice, which may be bad news for the Brighton ‘keeper if he has a repeat of last weekend’s disasterclass.

Brighton to score in each half, Brighton to have more corners in each half & Chelsea to have most cards

Brighton secured a big win when they beat Chelsea last weekend, but they will still be looking to banish the demons of their last Premier League game before the FA Cup break.

The Seagulls suffered a humiliating 7-0 defeat at the hands of Nottingham Forest in their last top flight outing, leaving Fabian Hurzeler under the microscope following a difficult period in the league.

They will surely come roaring out of the traps on Friday night in front of their own fans as they look to secure back-to-back wins over Chelsea.

The Seagulls scored in each half on Saturday night and could easily do so again on Friday.

They will almost surely receive fewer cards than their London opponents, with the two clubs occupying opposite ends of the league’s fair play table – Brighton’s record of 50 bookings and one sending off is the fifth best in the league, while Chelsea’s record of 68 bookings and one dismissal is the second worst.

Chelsea do average slightly more corners per game in the league this season, averaging 5.8 to Brighton’s 5. However, at home their average rises to six corners per game, which almost equals Chelsea’s away record of 6.1 corners per game.

Brighton shaded the corner battle in last weekend’s FA Cup tie and it is not a huge stretch to back them to shade the corner battle in each half on Friday night. It certainly represents a tempting price.

Brighton v Chelsea betting tips

Over 3.5 goals
Cole Palmer to have two or more shots on target
Brighton to score in each half, Brighton to have more corners in each half & Chelsea to have most cards

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.