5 Premier League betting trends in Gameweek 23 – Homebird Gakpo and bizarre Brighton
It was a fairly typical weekend in the Premier League. Liverpool and Arsenal won, we had a mystifying red card which makes you question the point of VAR and Tottenham threw a lifeline to a team below them as they so often do.
Here’s a closer look at five things we noticed which should influence your betting choices in future.
How may I assist you Alexander?
To the surprise of nobody, Newcastle won away at Southampton. The closest it got to a shock was Jan Bednarek’s opener for the home side, but the Magpies recovered to take the lead before half time.
The decisive goal in terms of putting Newcastle 2-1 up was scored by Alexander Isak. He was set up by Jacob Murphy and they are proving to be one of the most potent combinations this season.
Murphy has assisted Isak for six league goals in 2024/25. There were only nine instances of a combination getting more in the last 15 seasons.
The record in this period is nine, which Harry Kane teed up for Heung-min Son in 2020/21. It is very much in sight for Eddie Howe’s productive pair. Back Murphy to assist and Isak to score when they’re in the line-up together.
Mind the red
The two teams with the most Premier League red cards since Mikel Arteta was appointed as Arsenal manager are the Gunners, with 19, and Wolves (15). Referee Michael Oliver had the weight of history of on him at Molineux on Saturday, which may explain his weird decision.
Arteta will have been delighted it became 10-a-side before it go too late. In his first 17 Premier League matches in which his side had at least one player sent off, they only won three times.
Four minutes after Joao Gomes was dismissed, Riccardo Calafiori scored the only goal of the game. Perhaps Arsenal would’ve won playing 10 v 11 against lowly Wolves regardless. History suggests it was unlikely though.
If you’re betting in play and the Gunners go down to 10, assume the worst. Their three points this weekend shouldn’t change that.
Homebird Gakpo
It’s hard to overshadow Mohamed Salah if you play for Liverpool. The Egyptian king is having one of the all-time (since 1992) Premier League seasons to remember.
However, Cody Gakpo delivered more in the Reds’ 4-1 win over Ipswich. He assisted Salah then struck twice himself to record three goal contributions in a match for the first time for Liverpool.
Opta’s Michael Reid highlighted the Dutchman has now scored in six consecutive appearances at Anfield, becoming only the 13th player in the history of the club to do this.
Only five players have more home goals in the Premier League this season, all of whom have played at least 243 minutes more in front of their own fans. If you’re looking for good value goal scorer bets at Anfield, take Gakpo over Salah.
Bonkers Brighton
Brighton and Tottenham are having weird seasons.
The Seagulls are one point worse off than they were at this stage last season and one up on 2021/22. Their current points total is at their par, more or less.
But they lost to Everton on Saturday. The bottom three sides have all visited the Amex and left with a point, while Brighton were only able to draw at Leicester.
Then there is Spurs. Oh boy. They couldn’t get relegated, could they? Surely not, but they’re offering hope to the teams below them.
Defeat to Leicester on Sunday followed last weeks loss at Everton, while Ipswich have also won at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. In a mini-table of the bottom six teams, only Southampton have lost as many games as Spurs.
When Brighton and Tottenham are playing a relegation candidate, DO NOT assume they will win.
Defenders are the new strikers in Manchester
It’s all relative but neither Manchester club is having the season they would’ve hoped for in August.
Neither would like to admit it, but they have something else important in common too, they’ve become too reliant on unlikely players for goals.
Lisandro Martinez scored the winner for Manchester United at Fulham on Sunday. He also opened the scoring at Anfield three weeks ago. Across the four league games bookended by these two matches, the only other player to score a non-penalty goal for Ruben Amorim was Amad Diallo.
At the Etihad Stadium on Saturday, Josko Gvardiol scored the equaliser to help Manchester City beat Chelsea 3-1. Prior to Phil Foden’s recent flurry of goals, the Croatian defender was City’s second top scorer behind some Norwegian guy.
Where are the goals from Rasmus Hojlund or Joshua Zirkzee? Jeremy Doku or Bernardo Silva? Even if relying on defenders for goals didn’t matter to the Manchester clubs this weekend, it has held them back this season.
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