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NFL Tips: Expect a shoot-out in 10/1 Commanders @ Lions Bet Builder

Mark Kirwan

NFL

6 months ago

It’s the Divisional weekend of the NFL playoffs, where the final eight teams clash to decide the Conference finalists and move to within one game of the great big hullaballo that is Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans.

Pigskin punter Mark Kirwan assesses Saturday night’s pairing of the NFC’s number one seed, the Detroit Lions, with the underdog Washington Commanders, with the home side favoured by more than a touchdown by the bookies…

Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions Bet Builder

Alternate Handicap – Commanders +9.5
Total Points – Over 55.5
David Montgomery – Over 45.5 rushing yards
Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown

A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 10/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK OR TAP HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.

WHEN: Sunday, 19th January, 1:01am
WHERE: Ford Field, Detroit
TV: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports NFL

Alternate Handicap – Commanders +9.5

Washington made the most of their opportunity against the Bucs on Sunday night, edging a squeaker with a Zane Gonzalez field goal that rattled off the upright and over at the death, though a crucial fumbled snap in the fourth quarter could’ve seen Tampa head to Ford Field this Saturday instead.

But it was rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels who pulled off another late game winning drive – his fifth of an extraordinary debut season – to end an almost 20-year playoff victory drought for the Commanders franchise.

They are understandably heavy underdogs against a Lions team that delivered on preseason hype with the best record in the NFC. They lead the league in an array of offensive stats this, averaging a full three more points per game than the next best team.

Their defence, though, has been hit by a spate of injuries that may fatally undermine their dreams of a first Super Bowl win.

It means that, despite their potential to score a lot of points, this line looks too high, especially when you consider how Washington have managed to hang around in games and keep pace with other powerful offences this season. They’re willing to take chances on fourth down too and in Daniels have a quarterback who is capable of extending drives and plays like few others can.

Even if they’re two or three scores down at some point in this game, they’re capable of finding those big plays – just look at the Bears and Eagles games – to turn around a scoreline in a matter of minutes.

The handicap line has fluctuated between 8.5 and 9.5 this week. It ultimately isn’t going to make a huge difference most likely, but I’d rather keep the extra point so will use the Alternate Handicap market here to lock in that line.

Total Points: Over 55.5

Taking the underdog might suggest we should favour the under on this large total, but this game is going to be a game all about offence.

The Lions want to run the ball and the Commanders defence against rushers ranks third-worst in the league this season based on yards per carry. Detroit should also have David Montgomery back to run alongside Jahmyr Gibbs. When they choose to air the ball out, we know the playmakers they have – Amon-Ra St Brown, Jamison Williams, Sam Laporta, Tim Patrick and Gibbs out of the backfield.

If we assume the home team can reach the 35 points mark at home they’ve averaged this season – and there’s little reason to assume they won’t – then the over logically follows if the Commanders keep the margin under 10 points.

The Detroit defence did put up a better show in the season finale against Minnesota, but some of that improvement has to lie with the Vikings offence and Sam Darnold freezing on the big stage. When they played the Bills, Niners and Packers down the stretch, they gave up over 30 points each time.

David Montgomery – Over 45.5 Rushing Yards

If Montgomery wasn’t coming off a strained MCL picked up in that Bills game, this line would be higher. It’s fair to wonder about his usage in his return to the lineup, but all indications are he will be used as normal and if he is he should cruise past this number given Washington’s problems against the run.

Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown

His partner in the backfield has seen an explosion in his numbers since Montgomery went down in Week 14. This includes a four TD performance in the crucial Week 18 beatdown of the Vikings.

You might fear that the other running-back’s return could dent Gibbs’ chances of scoring but he already had 14 scores rom scrimmage prior to Montgomery’s absence, and if this game goes to plan for the Lions there’ll be plenty of work for both backs.

Gibbs is also going to get work in passing situations and I wouldn’t discourage anyone from taking a bigger price on him to score the First TD really juice up this Bet Builder, but an anytime play gives us more wriggle room here.