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UFC 312 betting tips: Back one champ to retain, one to be dethroned in Sydney

Simon Head

UFC

5 months ago

UFC 312 Tips

4:45am – Zhang Weili v Tatiana Suarez – Tatiana Suarez to win by submission
5:30am – Dricus du Plessis v Sean Strickland – Dricus du Plessis to win by points

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

UFC 312
Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney
TV: TNT Sports Box Office
Overnight Saturday, February 8th-Sunday, February 9th

The UFC’s Octagon is heading Down Under this weekend for UFC 312, with two fascinating title fights at the top of the card.

The main event will see a rematch for the undisputed UFC middleweight title as South Africa’s Dricus Du Plessis takes on former champion Sean Strickland in a battle for the belt at 185 pounds.

And at 115 pounds, the undisputed women’s strawweight title is on the line, as China’s defending champion Zhang Weili takes on American first-time challenger Tatiana Suarez in the co-main event.

Both fights are must-see matchups and could produce two very different results.

Suarez has the edge against defending champ Zhang

Usually, when a fight is booked, it’s pretty easy to guess how the odds will be set for a fight. It’s often just a case of seeing how far part the bookies set the two fighters to see what sort of value you can find in a matchup.

But when the UFC announced that Tatiana Suarez would be challenging Zhang Weili for the title, I was genuinely interested to see how the odds would fall because, for all of Zhang’s brilliance as a champion – and make no mistake, she is brilliant – I think Suarez could be her Kryptonite.

Paddy’s traders obviously share a similar view, as they have Suarez as a narrow 4/5 favourite in their title fight.

Despite being in the UFC for more than eight years, Suarez has only fought in the Octagon seven times. Now, after a 17-month hiatus, she’s back and ready to challenge for UFC gold for the first time, and she’s got the skillset to eclipse Zhang and capture the belt.

Without her injury problems down the years, Suarez would probably have captured the title and racked up a few title defences by now. Her strength up close and prodigious wrestling ability is more than anyone in the division can handle, and she’d probably be a major threat in the division above, too.

She’ll need to be wary of Zhang’s speed and striking, but the undefeated American should be able to get the fight to the mat. Once she establishes top position, she’s going to be very hard to shake off. And, with her other half being none other than Bellator bantamweight champion and submission wizard Patchy Mix, you can bet she’s been drilling her submission finishes extensively in the lead-up to this one.

Zhang has only been finished once in her 28-fight career, and that was by TKO. But Suarez has the tools to hand “Magnum” her first career submission defeat. It might come later in the fight, but I think the opening for a submission will be there. And, when it comes, I expect Suarez to take it.

PICK: Tatiana Suarez to win by submission

Du Plessis to repeat the feat against Strickland

Will the second time be the charm for Sean Strickland, or will it be rinse and repeat for Dricus Du Plessis?

That’s the big question heading into their UFC 312 rematch, and we’re all expecting another all-out war between these two come-forward strikers.

The first meeting was razor-close, with Du Plessis edging Strickland via a split decision. The fight didn’t just split the judges – fans and pundits were also torn on who should have walked away with the gold. A rematch had to happen, and we’re getting it this weekend in Sydney.

The first fight was incredibly close, and I expect more of the same in the rematch. And, much as we saw in the first fight, it could be a battle between output and damage, with Strickland landing more frequently while Du Plessis’ shots land with more impact.

It’s almost too close to call, but Paddy’s traders are siding firmly with the champion, who is a 1/2 shot, compared to 13/8 for Strickland.

I’m leaning the same way, too, with Du Plessis my pick to win the fight. And the 6/4 available for “Stillknocks” to get the victory on the scorecards once again looks like solid value.

PICK: Dricus Du Plessis by points

UFC 312 Tips

4:45am – Zhang Weili v Tatiana Suarez – Tatiana Suarez to win by submission
5:30am – Dricus du Plessis v Sean Strickland – Dricus du Plessis to win by points

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.