Horse Racing Tips: Matt Chapman’s 12/1 each-way play for the Welsh Grand National

9mo ago

Matt Chapman’s Friday ITV Racing tips

13:05 Chepstow – LE MILOS
13:20 Kempton – WEST BALBOA
13:40 Chepstow – NIETZSCHE HAS
13:55 Kempton – BALLYBURN
14:10 Chepstow – BILL BAXTER (each-way)
14:30 Kempton – MARTATOR
14:50 Chepstow – IWILLDOIT (each-way)
15:08 Kempton – FRERO BANBOU

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

ITV Racing is back Friday from Chepstow and Kempton, starting here with a handicap chase over nearly 2m4f. This is tricky and some horses have a bit to prove. LE MILOS has the back class and maybe this is his chance to bounce back to winning form for trainer Dan and jockey Harry Skelton. Down to a mark of 141 now, Le Milos landed the old Hennessy at Newbury off 146 back in 2022 but has failed to score since. He wasn’t disgraced, though, at that track last time and this is a big opportunity.

13:20 Kempton – WEST BALBOA

Kempton on ITV gets under way here with a mares’ handicap hurdle over an extended 3m. WEST BALBOA has been hopeless this season both over fences and hurdles but I will give him one more chance under Heidi Palin who takes off 7lb. A handicap mark of 141 is perfectly workable for the Dan Skelton runner and with the claim she can go off 134 – it just depends whether she’s gone at the game or not. If not, she can outclass this mob.

13:40 Chepstow – NIETZSCHE HAS

Here’s a Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle over 2m. NIETZSCHE HAS has to give weight away to these but the colt might be up to the task having tackled Grade 1 company in France including when second at Auteuil in November to the very useful Sain d’Esprit. Marcel Rolland trains with Ludovic Philipperon on top and he can ride so don’t worry about that! I’m told this horse is going stop stud straight after this race – who can blame him!

13:55 Kempton – BALLYBURN

The Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase over 2m. What a race. Sir Gino was brilliant in the Fighting Fifth but this will be some test to chase down BALLYBURN on fencing debut even though the trip is surely shorter than his best for the latter. The Willie Mullins-trained fantastic Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle winner from the Cheltenham Festival also has chasing experience and should get an easy lead under Paul Townend.

14:10 Chepstow – BILL BAXTER (each-way)

A handicap hurdle over nearly 3m. BILL BAXTER is better known as a chaser but was hurdling last time off this mark of 121 at Uttoxeter and was not disgraced when second to Icare Allen. The winner was chucked in that day but the effort still suggested the Warren Greatrex runner can do something off this mark ands Daire Davis once again takes off 7lb. An eachway chance.

14:30 Kempton – MARTATOR

A handicap chase over 2m. There should be some gallop on here and while he’s banging up the handicap MARTATOR might just come through strongly to take his winning run to six for Venetia Williams. I expect Charlie Deutsch to drop out the back and sit chilly while the early gallop is on. He’s up to 151 now and he winning run started off 118 so it would be a tremendous effort if he scores.

14:50 Chepstow – IWILLDOIT (each-way)

The big betting race of the day in the Welsh Grand National over an extended 3m6f. It seems crazy to tip a horse who is nearly 12 to land this but I’m going with the former hero of this race IWILLDOIT for Sam Thomas and Callum Pritchard, who takes off a very valuable 7lb.

The old boy is down to 147, having landed this prize on 140 in 2021and been third in 2023 odd 153. That means mathematically he has a fantastic chance and he stays and jumps and goes in soft ground. Not all of these will finish but Iwilldoit should and I think he’s got a solid eachway chance.

15:08 Kempton – FRERO BANBOU

A handicap chase over 3m. FRERO BANBOU has recently been stepped up in trip and he might well get plenty of these off the bridle at this distance after his excellent success in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle last time. He’s another for Venetia Williams and Charlie Deutsch who hopefully can pop away on the front end. He has gone up from 127 to 134 for that success but has been higher in the handicap in the past and maybe staying is his thing now.

So best of luck and pray for festive Yeeehaaas. You hear me Paddy?