How to read basketball odds
Reading basketball odds can feel a little daunting if you haven’t done it before. One glimpse of the markets for an NBA game between the Warriors and the Pistons can feature more than 200 basketball odds on Paddy Power’s site and app.
With so many options to bet on, it can be hard to know where to get started. Well, that’s where Paddy is here to help.
If you’re new to basketball betting then this guide is designed to show you how the odds work. Learn how to read NBA betting markets and understand what happens when the odds shift.
We’ll also explain why the odds change at all, and why they’re less volatile compared to sports like football and Formula One.
Let’s start by looking at the types of basketball odds formats available to punters.
Basketball odds explained
There are three odds formats that you can use when betting on basketball. All three types aim to show you the same thing: your return relative to your stake. You can quickly discover how much you stand to win from a successful bet just by glimpsing the odds.
Now, Paddy Power only offers two of the three basketball odds types – but we’ll explain the third here anyway.
Basketball fractional odds
Fractional odds are the traditional way to bet on basketball. They show your potential profit relative to your stake. So, if the odds are 4/1 on the Lakers to beat the Cavs, then you earn £4 profit for every £1 you bet. Your total return is the combination of profit + stake, so £4 + £1 = £5.
If the basketball odds flip to “odds on”, where the smaller number is before the bigger number, then that means you earn less profit than your original stage. However, you still make a profit overall because you get your stake back. For example, odds of 1/4 on the Cavs to beat the Lakers means you get £1 profit for every £4 you bet, or 25p profit for a £1 bet.
Basketball decimal odds
Decimal odds in basketball are now the most popular format in Europe. It’s much easier to understand probability compared to fractional odds. Effectively, the higher the number, the less chance of the outcome happening. However, the higher the number means your profit potential is higher, too.
Here’s an example of basketball decimal odds. The Raptors are 8.00 to beat the Cavaliers. This means if you bet £1 on Toronto and they win, you earn £8 back in total (profit + stake). If the Lakers are 10.00 and you bet £1, then you earn £10 back.
Odds of 2.00 reflect an Even chance of winning, where you get £1 profit from a £1 stake (which equals a £2 total return). Anything below that, between 2.00 and 1.01, is where you earn less profit than your stake. So, betting £1 on the Cavaliers at 1.07 to beat the Raptors means you’d earn £1.07 back in total.
Basketball American odds
American odds are used across the Atlantic and you might hear tipsters saying things like: “The Knicks are +200 to beat the Pistons”. But what do American odds mean in basketball? Well, they show how much profit you stand to win relative to a £100 bet.
For example, you back the Knicks at +200 with a £10 bet. If they win, you earn £20 profit.
Now, the odds can stray into the negative too, which is when they become “odds on”. Say the Pistons are -300 to beat the Knicks. This means you need to bet £300 just to earn £100 profit, £30 to earn £10 profit, or £3 to earn a quid profit.
Do live Basketball odds change?
Live basketball odds naturally change as games unfold. The odds of a team winning a game will shrink as the clock ticks down and they’re in front. However, basketball odds don’t change as rapidly as you might think.
Why? Because the value of one shot in basketball is far lower than that of a goal in football, or a crash in Formula One. The chances of a team winning a match based on one play doesn’t swing as wildly in basketball. There are fewer “single game-changing events” like a goal or a crash.
Therefore, it’s usually easier to follow live basketball betting odds. They’re more reliable and far less volatile.
How Basketball outright odds work
There are plenty of basketball outright odds available to bet on at Paddy Power, and they all reflect the same probabilities as match odds and live odds. Outright odds cover long-term bets, such as which team will win the NBA Finals and who will be named MVP.
These outright odds change over time but not by much. They therefore become a reliable destination for long-form betting, where punters take a stab on outsiders over-performing.
For example, the 76ers might be set for a good season but aren’t predicted to make the NBA Finals. As a punter, you feel their NBA basketball odds of 19.00 to reach the Finals is a great price. So, you back them in November and, come the spring, they’ve proved the doubters wrong and now sit at 8.00, having just made the playoffs.
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