Nothing cements the start of a New Year like the two-legged Carabao Cup semi-finals, and since we’ve all stuck to our resolutions so far, that’s our midweek footballing reward this week.

As always, we’ve covered your January blues with Sam Farley‘s mouthwatering Arsenal v Newcastle United tips on Tuesday night. Let old acquaintance be forgotten!

Arsenal v Newcastle Bet Builder Tips

Under 2.5 goals
Arsenal to win
Joelinton to commit 2+ fouls
Over 4.5 cards
Alexander Isak to have 2+ shots

• A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 14/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

WHEN: Tuesday, 7th of January, 8pm
WHERE: Emirates Stadium, London
TV: ITV1, Sky Sports Main Event, and Sky Sports Football

Under 2.5 goals

This is the first of two legs in this Carabao Cup semi-final, so neither team will want to lose it before the second leg. Expect things to be tight, nervy and low-scoring.

Arsenal have been exceptional defensively this season and have conceded the fewest goals in the Premier League while seeing Under 2.5 goals land in 55.6% of their home league games at the Emirates.

Both teams are missing key players. Arsenal are missing Bukayo Saka and potentially Kai Havertz, while Newcastle are without Fabian Schar and Bruno Guimaraes, who are suspended.

Those losses, particularly for Newcastle, are huge, and they’ll look to keep this close before the second leg on home soil. It’s also worth noting that five of the past six meetings between the teams have seen Under 2.5 goals.

Arsenal to win

It will be a close game, but Arsenal should have just about enough to secure the advantage ahead of the second leg at St James’ Park. They’re missing some big players, but we’ll likely see a strong team for Newcastle and them.

The front three of Leandro Trossard, Gabriel Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus can cause Newcastle problems.

Arsenal have an excellent record against Newcastle at the Emirates, winning 11 of the last 13 meetings, across all competitions, at that stadium. For Newcastle, losing Guimaraes, in particular, will hurt them, allowing Arsenal to win the midfield battle and ultimately take the win.

Joelinton to commit 2+ fouls

The midfield battle will be key, with Newcastle needing Joelinton, Sandro Tonali and former Gunner Joe Willock to control the contest. It will be a difficult evening for all three of them, and they have to ensure Martin Odegaard is kept quiet and not allowed to dictate play.

Central to that is Joelinton, and the Brazilian, as effective as he’s been, has a history of conceding a lot of fouls. In 19 Premier League appearances this season, he’s already racked up 40 fouls, averaging over two fouls per game. Given the class in the Arsenal midfield, we can expect him to need to get his boot in.

Gabriel Jesus to commit 1+ fouls

The Gunners’ Gabriel Jesus isn’t a player you usually associate with being a dirty player or giving up a lot of fouls, but he’s not afraid to get amongst it. He ranks sixth in terms of the most fouls committed by Arsenal in the Premier League this season, which, given that he’s started just six games is a huge shock.

In 17 appearances, the Brazilian has conceded 14 fouls, but on a minute-by-minute basis, he’s committed the second most fouls at the club behind Mikel Merino. Across a full 90 minutes, we’ve seen Jesus average a staggering 2.09 fouls.

He’s set to start this one and has been in great form for Arsenal, but with all that time on the pitch, he’s almost sure to give up a foul.

Alexander Isak to have 2+ shots

Newcastle’s Alexander Isak comes into this game in great form. The Swede has scored 13 times in 18 Premier League games for his club this season and has scored six goals in four straight games. Arsenal have allegedly been looking at him as a potential signing, which has excited their fans.

While Arsenal’s defence are more than capable of keeping him off the scoresheet, they won’t be able to stop him taking shots. We’ve seen the 25-year-old take 39 shots in his 18 league appearances, at an average of 2.39 per 90 minutes played.

With him being in such great form, we’ll see a confident Isak try to continue his scoring streak. He might also have an eye on a potential move to the Emirates and want to impress.

Arsenal v Newcastle Betting tips

Under 2.5 goals
Arsenal to win
Joelinton to commit 2+ fouls
Over 4.5 cards
Alexander Isak to have 2+ shots

• A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 14/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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