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5 Premier League betting trends in Gameweek 24 – Wood’s on Fire & a leaky City

Andrew Beasley

Football News, Premier League

5 months ago

The Premier League was its usual entertaining self this weekend.

The top three all won, collectively scoring 14 goals while conceding just one. What makes this remarkable is that they beat the teams who started the match week fourth, sixth, and 10th in the table.

Other strange results included Tottenham winning to nil and Southampton winning full stop. Here are five things we noticed which should influence your future bets.

Forest’s 7 Heaven

Nottingham Forest were on the wrong end of the first 7-0 score line of the Premier League era, getting thumped at Blackburn in 1995. On Saturday, they inflicted the 11th thrashing of the modern era against Brighton.

There have been a few big scorelines since just before Christmas. After seeing five instances of teams scoring at least five goals in the opening 16 match weeks of 2024/25, there have been eight in the eight since.

But even so, goals per game are down on last season as is the rate for matches paying out on over 2.5 goals. The odd pummelling here or there hasn’t changed the downward goal trend yet.

Wood he do it?

Forest striker, Chris Wood, very much enjoyed the match at the City Ground. He scored a hat-trick to move within two goals of Mohamed Salah at the front of the Golden Boot race.

Sadly for the Kiwi, the Liverpool forward then bagged two at Bournemouth. Wood is level in the standings with Alexander Isak, who drew a blank this weekend, while Erling Haaland is two ahead after using one of his nine touches at Arsenal to score.

It is unlikely Wood will finish the season as the top scorer. But how about an each-way flutter? If you look at the points-per-game averages of each club’s remaining opponents, only Bournemouth (1.16) and Wolves (1.20) have easier run-ins than Forest (1.23).

As they don’t have European football to drain their legs either (though they probably will next season), Wood’s Golden Boot chances shouldn’t be dismissed too readily.

Tired Lions

Aston Villa have struggled following their Champions League matches. The trend continued at Molineux on Saturday, where they followed up a 4-2 win over Celtic with a 0-2 loss to Wolves.

But there are other midweek games, with the Carabao Cup and occasional Premier League matches filling time from one weekend to another. No matter the obligation, Villa have struggled afterward.

Their season splits almost perfectly in half. The Villans have won just twice from 13 league games that followed a match on a Tuesday or Wednesday, with their points-per-game average being the equivalent of 22 after 24 games or fifth bottom in the Premier League table.

With eight wins from the other 11, they’re going at 55-point, title-challenging pace in those games. If you’re betting on Villa, check when they last played. That seems to be all the thought you need to give it.

Cunha’s edge

It is rare to commit six fouls without being booked. There have only been three instances of this happening in the Premier League this season.

Matheus Cunha nearly managed it on Saturday. He gave away a sixth free-kick against Aston Villa in the 84th minute, yet referee Andy Madley remained unmoved.

Twelve minutes later, Cunha scored, took off his shirt, and was inevitably booked. Celebrating, that’s the real crime in football.

The Wolves forward has only collected two other yellow cards. One was in the 102nd minute at Villa Park, for dissent, leaving a solitary booking for a foul this season. Only 16 players have committed more Premier League fouls, yet from them, only fellow Brazilian Bruno Guimaraes has as few bookings.

If you want to back a player to commit a foul or two, Cunha’s a good option. If you’re betting on him to receive a card, it only really happens late on in derbies.

Leaky City

Manchester City finished games strongly last season. In the final 15 minutes of league games in 2023/24, they scored 21 goals while conceding 10.

With Arsenal already 3-1 up at the 75-minute mark on Sunday, they had likely already lost. But they then conceded twice more to turn a routine loss into a pummelling.

City have conceded 11 goals from the 76th minute onwards this term. That’s only one shy of being the joint-worst team in the Premier League.

Two goals in this time window against Brighton, Manchester United and Brighton saw nine points become one. Feyenoord and Paris Saint-Germain both scored twice in the last 12 minutes in the Champions League, too.

Arsenal’s late goals didn’t matter much. But they continued a trend and made clear that you can’t trust City in the closing stages of games if betting in-play.