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5 Premier League betting trends we spotted since Christmas – City’s slow revival and Maresca on the money

Andrew Beasley

Football News

6 months ago

On Christmas Day, Liverpool were six points clear of Arsenal with a game in hand, and they still are. That doesn’t tell the story of an eventful few games for both sides, though.

At the bottom of the table, Wolves have been the biggest winners by moving out of the relegation zone across the last three match weeks. Here are five things stats man Andrew Beasley has noticed in the Premier League since Christmas.

City not out of the woods yet

Manchester City have collected a very handy seven points from their previous three games. It’s as many as they earned in the nine fixtures before Santa gave them the gift of matches against a trio of struggling teams: Everton, Leicester and West Ham.

But while this will have helped rebuild the champions’ shattered confidence, don’t take these results as proof that City are out of the woods just yet. Pep Guardiola isn’t convinced either.

Everton scored their only goal in their last five games against them. Leicester failed to score but amassed their joint-fourth best-expected goal tally of the season. West Ham outshot the Cityzens 17 to 10.

With Brentford and Ipswich up next, City might win their next two. Defensive issues remain, though.

Maresca on the money

Enzo Maresca has insisted that Chelsea are not in the Premier League title race all season. Yet on the final day of action before Christmas, his side had the opportunity to go top of the table, if only for a few hours.

The Blues blew that by drawing 0-0 at Everton. They then suffered a derby defeat to Fulham on Boxing Day before losing at Ipswich and drawing at Crystal Palace.

Only Leicester and Southampton took fewer points in the three games following Christmas. Enzo was right all along.

Wissa tops festive target tree

The record for shots by a player in a Premier League match this season is eight, recorded five times.

Three of the instances have occurred since Christmas, though. Paul Onuachu had eight goal attempts on Boxing Day, and Julio Enciso did likewise the following day.

Neither man had more than three on target or scored, though. Hats off to Brentford’s Yoane Wissa then, as he had eight shots, four on target and scored the last of the Bees’ five goals in their romp at Southampton on Saturday.

Playing tired teams at this time of year undoubtedly helps. Darwin Nunez, Bukayo Saka, and Dominic Solanke all had eight or more shots in games during this period last season. None of them scored, though, so Wissa is the king of Christmas shooting.

Emery’s entertainers

You’ll have seen the score lines from Boxing Day 1963 at some point when chaos descended on English football. Christmas 2024 was far more boring.

Up to match week 17, there had been an average of 5.9 games per week, which paid out on over 2.5 goals. The average dropped to five during the festive period, with almost every team having one low-scoring match.

One of three exception clubs to this rule was Aston Villa, who lost, drew and then won their three games, all of which saw three or four goals. With a 2-1 victory over Leicester on Saturday, the Villans have seen at least three goals in eight of their nine Premier League wins this season.

A lot of their Champions League games have been light on goals. But in domestic football, always consider backing a high total when Villa are playing, especially if you think they’ll win.

Golden Boot race hots up

Mohamed Salah looked to have scored the last goal in Sunday’s Liverpool v Manchester United match, but Amad Diallo had other ideas.

Nonetheless, the Egyptian added to his second-half total. He and Erling Haaland are locked in a race for the Golden Boot, and although the City man had the better weekend, they have both scored three times since Christmas.

However, they could barely be more different regarding when they score in matches. Salah’s split between first-half and second-half goals is 2-16, whereas it is 12-4 for Haaland.

The latter netted in both halves against West Ham on Saturday. But he looks like the more solid selection for first-scorer bets, while his Liverpool counterpart dominates the last-scorer market.