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Darts Tips: Emma Paton’s Best Bets for tonight’s Littler v van Gerwen final include a 4/1 play

PP Staff

Darts

8mo ago

Darts tips

19:30: Luke Littler v Michael van Gerwen
Littler to win 7-4
A 9 dart finish in the match

[videopress L9YLs3F0]

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

19:30: Luke Littler v Michael van Gerwen

What a final we have in prospect; it’s a clash for the ages! Michael van Gerwen, the three-time champ, going head to head with the prodigious Luke Littler and two of the biggest names in the sport colliding.

I’m using the tournament stats here; the averages don’t show much. Littler averages 102 across the whole event, and MvG averages 99.

The amount of ton-plus averages for Littler has been key for me. He’s topped that ton in four of his five matches, and it feels like he is also peaking at the right time.

We’ve seen glimpses of vintage Van Gerwen. That quarter-final against Callan Rydz, where he averaged over 103, that was him at his peak. He dropped off a little bit in the 6-1 semi-final thrashing of Chris Dobey.

I’m really looking at these ton-plus averages and that’s why I’m leaning towards Littler. He’s just got a higher ceiling now, and I feel he’s back to that relaxed, free-flowing state of play we saw last year.

That showed in the quarters and semi-finals. He’s back to enjoying himself and you can see that. If he starts fast, like he has in the last couple of matches, MvG could be in trouble.

I’m going for a 7-4 Littler win in the final. Also, I’ve said this a few times in the last few weeks: there’s real value in backing a nine-darter at Ally Pally tonight.