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UFC 312 Betting Tips: Our 5/1 Saturday night double

Aaron Nolan

UFC

5 months ago

We’ve got UFC 312 this Saturday night with some massive fights on the bill as the action heads Down Under to Sydney!

Our Octogon grappler Aaron Nolan has stepped up for this one with two picks for Saturday/Sunday night’s bouts with one battle each for male and female fighters.

UFC 312 Tips

04:45 Zhang Weili v Tatiana Suarez: Fight Result – Tatiana Suarez to win
05:30 Dricus Du Plessis v Sean Strickland: Method of Victory: Sean Strickland to win by Decision/Technical Decision

A double with these bets pays at approximately 5/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

UFC 312
When: Saturday night/Sunday morning 8th-9th February
Where: Qudos Bank Aerna, Sydney
TV: TNT Sports, Discovery+

Zhang Weili v Tatiana Suarez: Fight Result – Tatiana Suarez to win

This is a pick ‘em and I’m confidently picking Tatiana Suarez. Firstly, she’s undefeated with an 11-0-0 record while Zhang Weill has shown weakness with back-to-back losses to Rose Namajunas in 2021.

Weili does a great job of mixing up the arts to set a pace on her opponents. Her takedowns proved particularly important in her last bout, using them to secure control of the fight. I don’t think she’ll be able to go to her wrestling against Suarez, who is considered a far better wrestler. Suarez has a 100% takedown defence rate in seven fights in the UFC. Suarez also lands 6.2 takedowns per 15 minutes on average. Her success in turning fights into grappling matches means she gets hit very rarely, averaging just one strike absorbed per minute – almost three times less than Weili. Then there’s the submission threat winning four of her seven UFC fights by submission including her last two by Guillotine choke.

Suarez to win.

Dricus Du Plessis v Sean Strickland: Strickland to win by Decision/Technical Decision

I’m surprised Strickland got a rematch, but I’m glad he did. I get a kick out of his interviews, I enjoy the controversy and I like his unique style in the octagon.

Quick recap of the first fight: Strickland landed more shots but Du Plessis landed the bigger hits. Everyone was surprised to see how easily Dricus found the target, after Izzy had such a hard time landing anything meaningful, on the usually elusive Strickland. But most surprisingly, Du Plessis landed six takedowns on the American.

Strickland has good wrestling defence despite standing so upright. He’s usually hard to take down, defending 77% of takedown attempts. You have to go back to his bout with Kamaru Usman in 2017 to find the last time he was taken down twice in a fight. So it’s mind blowing the South African, not known for his wrestling, was able to bring him to the canvas six times in their last outing. I have no explanation for that. Perhaps Dricus’ power weakened Strickland’s wrestling reactions.

I can’t see Du Plessis having similar success with takedowns again. I think the rematch will go a bit smoother for Sean. I imagine Strickland will do a better job of protecting himself, staying out of the way of some of Du Plessis’ big shots, and stuffing more takedown attempts.