PaddyPower News

Go to PP.

NFL Tips: Saturday night’s high-stakes 12/1 Texans @ Chiefs Bet Builder

Andrew Cunneen

NFL

5 months ago

The NFL Playoffs are heating up, and we have a high-stakes game at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday night.

Gridiron guru Andrew Cunneen has four value picks for Saturday night’s showdown. Let’s get his Texans @ Chiefs betting tips.

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Bet Builder tips

Handicap: Houston +8.5
Total points under 41.5
Nico Collins under 82.5 receiving yards
Xavier Worthy over 53.5 receiving yards

A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 12/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK OR TAP HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP

Saturday 9.30pm: Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
NFL play off game at Arrowhead Stadium
TV: Sky Sports NFL and Sky Sports Main Event

Houston (+8.5)

I know the temptation is to back the Chiefs regardless. But the reality of this Houston team is that their pass rush and lockdown corners ensure you can’t play the way you want to.

That was evident last week in their thumping of the Chargers, who have a top-five quarterback in the league and one of the best tackle pairings to boot.

No team has overperformed more than the Chiefs this year – that much is a bona fide fact. And you can talk about wins over pre-season projections if you like, but the Chiefs won fifteen of the sixteen games they tried to win with a skeleton receiver room, an offensive line merry-go-round, a first-place schedule and Chris Jones’ health fluctuating.

Yet, they’ve still gotten the job done. This will be a similar instance. They’re clearly not good enough to blow teams out anymore, but the systematic, slow-paced breakdown of the Houston defensive line through screens and a quick game will get them over the line in an unconvincing fashion.

If it’s always unconvincing fashion, doesn’t that inevitability just become convincing fashion?

Total points Under 41.5

These are two of the best defensive game planners in the NFL.

The entire game will be Andy Reid and Bobby Slowik trying to find an inch.

They’ll have to do that methodically, allowing key defensive players on the opposite side not to sniff a chance at a momentum-shifting play.

This will caution first before the ball is placed in the hands of the quarterbacks in the fourth quarter to find the key score.

I’ve backed Mahomes to do that, of course. But there are no big plays in this one.

Nico Collins Under 82.5 Receiving Yards

Nico Collins is the only game-wrecker the Texans have. But internal pressure from the Chiefs will mean the ball has to come out early, and Trent McDuffie will travel with Collins into the slot, at the X receiver position and the backside Z position, if they try to force-feed him targets.

Very few players in the league can do this. In their meeting at Christmas, Collins was held to 60 yards, even when Tank Dell left the game, technically freeing up targets.

There won’t be any let-up in that defensive effort this time, especially as it feels like Houston have gone backwards offensively since.

Xavier Worthy Over 53.5 Receiving Yards

It will be Joe Thuney or D.J. Humphries at left tackle. Which means they don’t know what the interior will look like. Which means practice is up in the air. And not having a stable five when you’re coming up against the best pass rush in the NFL means you have to shift.

That means no long-developing routes to Noah Gray. Having Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter at the corner means that Nuk Hopkins isn’t likely to move the sticks – so they’ll need to rely on motion and quick game to get the game moving in the right direction.

Their key outlets for this are Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy. However, given the former’s mobility limitations, funnelling them through the speedster is wise.