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UFC 311 Betting Tips: Our 10/1 Saturday night treble

Aaron Nolan

UFC

6 months ago

We’ve got UFC 311 this Saturday night with some massive fights on the bill at the Intuit Dome in California.

Our Octogon guru Aaron Nolan has stepped up for this one with three picks for Saturday/Sunday night’s bouts with fight weight classes doing battle in Inglewood.

UFC 311 Tips

04:00 Jiri Prochazka v Jamahal Hill: Hill by KO/TKO
04:30 Merab Dvalishvili v Umar Nurmagomedov: Dvalishvili to win
05:30 Islam Makhachev v Arman Tsarukyan: Makhachev win & Round 2 to Start

A treble with these bets pays at approximately 10/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

UFC 311
When: Saturday night/Sunday morning 18th-19th January
Where: Intuit Dome, Inglewood, California
TV: TNT Sports, Discovery+

Prochazka v Hill: Hill by KO/TKO

I’m not a fan of Jiri Prochazka. Specifically, his samurai persona and unconventional training methods. If he truly spends his time punching trees, meditating in the snow and practicing his crane stance like Daniel LarRusso, then Jamahal Hill has nothing to worry about.

Jiri gets rocked in every fight he’s had in the UFC and absorbs more strikes than he lands on average. He’s been taken down more times than he’s taken his opponents down. I don’t think he’s a particularly technical fighter.

Hill has very underrated striking skills. He lands 7.2 strikes per minute and absorbs just 3.5. I think he can school Jiri on the feet. so Hill to win by KO/TKO.

Dvalishvili v Nurmagomedov: Dvalishvili to win

I’m a Merab guy, I think he’s great and I love how he fights. So I was shocked when I saw Paddy priced him as a 2/1 underdog to defend his belt.

Merab has been putting on clinics against the best the Bantamweight division has to offer. Let’s go through it: Petr Yan, former champion, Merab landed twice as many strikes and took him down 11 times.

Henry Cejudo, a UFC and an Olympic Wrestling champion, but that didn’t stop Merab taking him down five times and landing over double the significant strikes.

Sean O’Malley, Merab out struck the division’s best striker, with 82 strikes to Sean’s 47, plus sending him to the canvas six times.

Umar only has six wins in the UFC, and bar his most recent win against Cody Sandhagen, no one knows who the other five guys are. Umar-Shmumar. I’m going with the Machine. Dvalishvili to win.

Makhachev v Tsarukyan: Makhachev win & Rd 2 to Start

While Makhachev & Tsarukyan’s first fight went under the radar in the middle of a Fight Night card in 2019, the rematch takes centre stage as the Main Event of UFC 311. At the time, Tsarukyan was an unknown quantity, making his UFC debut, but Islam was Khabib’s protégé. He had some hype and there were high expectations. Despite beating the Armenian, it was still considered a blip on Islam’s career, landing just 14 significant strikes, getting taken down once and requiring the judges to get his hand raised.

The question is, has Tsarukyan grown enough as a fighter to beat Makhachev. I don’t think so. In Tsarukyan’s last fight he had to escape four submission attempts against Charles Oliveira. He’s a great wrestler, but Gamrot had his number, taking him down six times. You don’t see Islam getting himself in any real trouble like that.

In terms of development, Islam has become more dangerous as his career progresses. He takes everyone down, chaining together wrestling takedowns, judo trips and hip throws. He has a range of submission victories from D’arce choke, arm triangle, armbar, kimura and rear naked. He’s developed excellent striking and he’s head kicking the Featherweight GOAT spark out. How do you beat this guy?

Makhachev is the man. I’m going for the #WhatOddsPaddy market – Islam Makhachev to win and Round 2 to Start.